According to the Clear International analysis, East European market is going to grow by over 6 percent in 2016 and by 5 percent during the next year. But there are considerable changes. The number for 2016 is significantly lower than it was anticipated at the beginning of the year and the difference is largely due to developments in Turkey. In lieu of political instability which undermined business environment in early 2016, there was failed military coup. This has had a dire effect on business investment resulting in 10,000 trailers being omitted from the forecast.

Analysis reports that in 2015 Turkey was the largest trailer manufacturer in the East: “That position will be followed by Poland in the current year with Russia taking the third place due to the continuing economic slowdown. Although Turkey may make a quite rapid recovery, Russia may take its current position only in 2020. “Notwithstanding the outlook for Russia deteriorated, last year was grim for the market and demand will grow till 2020. Ukraine and Belarus are going to keep the same pace. In fact, the growth forecast for the trailer market next year depends partially on a rebound in both Russia and Ukraine.”

“Trade in Eastern Europe reached an all-time high in the end of 2013, but the growth was choked off in the second half of 2014, again as a result of the situation in CIS, particularly in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. For both exports and imports, the trade situation deteriorated in 2016. Economic forecast claims there will be investment growth and GDP appreciation in Eastern Europe in 2017, which will make trade levels recover and stimulate demand for road transport. However, a cyclical slowdown affecting the whole region will lead to a fall in trailer demand in 2018 before growth resumes.”

Managing director of CLEAR Gary Beecroft commented: “Political instability and military conflict has resulted in the Eastern Europe being stuck at roughly the same level of trailer demand since 2011. A cyclical economic slowdown, most likely occurring in 2018, means that it may well be 2020 before we see the market move ahead decisively.”

Due to gradual appreciation of economic situation and trailer market improvement in particular, supply of end of life tires in Eastern Europe will grow, too. Tire recyclers may account for feedstock increase till 2021.

Article source: Tyre Press