Global natural rubber demand is expected to exceed production in 2026 as the tire and rubber industries face constrained supply, volatile prices, weather-related disruptions and wider geopolitical uncertainty, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countrie (ANRPC). ANRPC’s August 2026 statistical report forecasts global natural rubber production at 15.039 million tonnes for the year, up just 0.6% from 14.952 million tonnes in 2025, while demand is projected to reach 15.356 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4% from 15.301 million tonnes. This implies a potential annual supply-demand gap of around 317,000 tonnes. Production in August itself was estimated at 1.396 million tonnes, 4.51% below the 1.462 million tonnes recorded a year earlier. With tire production remaining one of the principal drivers of natural rubber consumption, the figures underline continuing pressure on the global tire raw material supply chain and reinforce interest in resource efficiency, tire life extension and circular material strategies.

Global production expected to reach 15.039 million tonnes

ANRPC forecasts worldwide natural rubber production to increase by only 0.6% in 2026, reaching 15.039 million tonnes compared with 14.952 million tonnes in 2025. The latest projection incorporates revised 2025 production data for Thailand as well as updated 2026 estimates for Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

The organization said production continues to be affected by weather conditions across Southeast Asia, particularly erratic rainfall and periods of unusually dry weather. Such conditions can influence tapping schedules, latex yields and overall availability of natural rubber from major producing countries.

August production falls 4.51% year on year

Global natural rubber production in August 2026 was estimated at 1.396 million tonnes, representing a 4.51% decline from 1.462 million tonnes in August 2025.

The monthly decline highlights the continuing sensitivity of natural rubber supply to weather conditions and seasonal production patterns, even as annual output is still expected to record modest growth.

Natural rubber demand forecast at 15.356 million tonnes

ANRPC expects global natural rubber demand to increase by 0.4% in 2026 to 15.356 million tonnes, compared with 15.301 million tonnes in the previous year. The largest increases in projected consumption are expected in China, Malaysia and Cambodia.

Based on the organization’s latest forecasts, global demand would exceed production by approximately 317,000 tonnes during 2026. Actual market conditions will depend on inventories, trade flows and changes in production and consumption during the remainder of the year.

Tire production remains important demand driver

ANRPC said the demand outlook remains dependent on vehicle sales, tire production, shipping conditions and disruptions to natural rubber supply. Demand associated with electric vehicles continued to provide modest support, particularly in China and India.

Natural rubber remains a strategically important raw material for tire manufacturing because of its mechanical properties, fatigue resistance and performance in demanding applications such as truck, bus, aircraft and off-the-road tires.

Natural rubber prices show mixed movement in August

Physical natural rubber prices moved in different directions across major grades during August. The average SMR-20 price in Kuala Lumpur increased 4.25% month on month to $2.31 per kilogram, while Bangkok STR-20 rose 1.40% to $2.39 per kilogram.

RSS-3 declined 4.18% to $2.80 per kilogram, while RSS-4 in Kottayam increased slightly by 0.57% to $2.92 per kilogram. The average price of bulk latex fell 4.73% to $1.73 per kilogram.

Natural rubber trade patterns vary across Asia

China’s natural rubber imports increased 3.39% month on month during August, while Vietnam recorded a 5.08% increase. Imports into India declined 10.18%, while Malaysia registered a decrease of 8.24%.

On the export side, Vietnam increased shipments by 5.63%. Thailand recorded a 5.24% decline, Indonesia 5.36%, Malaysia 1.48% and Cambodia 1.88%.

Oil prices and geopolitical risks influence rubber market

ANRPC said August was characterized by continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, including renewed conflict and disruptions affecting major shipping routes. Brent crude oil averaged $91.08 per barrel during the month.

The organization attributed the higher oil price partly to concerns over possible restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and wider instability in the Middle East. Energy prices are relevant to the rubber and tire sectors because they affect transportation, manufacturing and the economics of synthetic rubber, which is largely derived from petrochemical feedstocks.

Rubber futures strengthen during August

Natural rubber futures also increased during the month. The Shanghai Futures Exchange January 2027 contract averaged CNY 18,109 per tonne, representing a 7.78% month-on-month increase.

The Singapore Exchange November 2026 contract averaged $2.24 per kilogram, up 4.32% from the previous month.

Supply constraints increase importance of circular tire materials

The projected gap between natural rubber production and consumption reinforces the importance of using tire raw materials efficiently. Extending tire service life through retreading and improving recovery of materials from end-of-life tires can complement efforts to secure sustainable supplies of primary natural rubber.

Recycled rubber, devulcanized rubber and other tire-derived materials cannot replace natural rubber in every tire application, but their increased use can reduce demand for virgin resources in suitable compounds and products. Greater tire circularity may therefore become increasingly relevant as manufacturers manage raw material availability, cost volatility and sustainability objectives simultaneously.

ANRPC continues monitoring global natural rubber market

ANRPC said it will continue providing market statistics and analysis to governments and industry stakeholders as supply, demand and trade conditions evolve. The intergovernmental organization represents major natural rubber producing countries and monitors developments affecting production, consumption, trade and prices.

For the tire industry, the August outlook points to another year of relatively tight natural rubber fundamentals, with demand forecast to remain above production and weather, energy markets, vehicle production and international trade continuing to shape availability and pricing.

Original report by Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.